OSCAR PREDICTIONS 2025

And the Academy Award goes to...

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TOP 10 MOVIES OF 2024

With the Oscars coming up on March 2nd, I’ve finally finished my predictions for the show! I have two components for each category – who should win and who will win.

Last year I went 14/19, but this year … the truth is … I’m really in pursuit of greatness. I know people don’t usually talk like that, but I want to be one of the greats.

At the end, for my best picture prediction, I’ve included a write-up explaining not only my pick, but also some background on how people look at the awards season leading up to the Oscars.

TECHNICAL AWARDS

Awards honoring below-the-line talent that makes film possible

Best Hair & Makeup:

For achievement in makeup and hair-styling for film.

• Should Win: THE SUBSTANCE

• Will Win: WICKED

Best Costume Design:

For achievement in film costume design.

• Should Win: WICKED

• Will Win: WICKED

Best Production Design:

For achievement in design and creation of sets, locations, and props.

• Should Win: DUNE 2

• Will Win: WICKED

Best Visual Effects:

For achievement in visual effects in film.

• Should Win: DUNE 2

• Will Win: DUNE 2

Best Cinematography:

Presented to the cinematographer for achievement in cinematography, or the art and technology of motion-picture photography.

• Should Win: NICKEL BOYS

• Will Win: THE BRUTALIST

Best Sound:

For achievement in sound mixing, recording, sound design, and sound editing.

• Should Win: DUNE 2

• Will Win: DUNE 2

MUSIC: Best Original Score

For the best substantial body of music (in the form of dramatic underscoring) written specifically for the film.

• Should Win: CONCLAVE

• Will Win: THE BRUTALIST

MUSIC: Best Original Song

Presented to the songwriters who have composed the best original song written specifically for a film.

• Should Win: It Ain’t Me Babe (A COMPLETE UNKNOWN — not an original song but don’t care. No opinion amongst the nominees)

• WILL WIN: El Mal (EMILIA PÉREZ)

Best Film Editing:

Presented for achievement in film editing, or the art and craft of cutting and assembling a finished film.

• Should Win: ANORA

• Will Win: CONCLAVE

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WRITING, ACTING, AND DIRECTING

WRITING: Best Original Screenplay

Presented for the best screenplay not based upon previously published material.

• Should Win: A REAL PAIN

• Will Win: ANORA

WRITING: Best Adapted Screenplay

Presented for the best screenplay adapted from previously established material.

• Should Win: NICKEL BOYS

• Will Win: CONCLAVE

Best Director:

Presented for achievement in film direction.

• Should Win: RaMell Ross (NICKEL BOYS)

• Will Win: Sean Baker (ANORA)

Best Supporting Actor:

Presented to an actor who has delivered an outstanding performance in a supporting role.

• Should Win: Guy Pearce (THE BRUTALIST)

• Will Win: Kieran Culkin (A REAL PAIN)

Best Supporting Actress:

Presented to an actress who has delivered an outstanding performance in a supporting role.

• Should Win: Felicity Jones (THE BRUTALIST)

• Will Win: Zoe Saldaña (EMILIA PÉREZ)

Best Actor:

Presented to an actor who has delivered an outstanding performance in a leading role.

• Should Win: Adrien Brody (THE BRUTALIST)

• Will Win: Adrien Brody (THE BRUTALIST)

(… Although if Timothée Chalamet pulls off the upset, I’ll be thrilled)

Best Actress:

Presented to an actress who has delivered an outstanding performance in a leading role.

• Should Win: Mikey Madison (ANORA)

• Will Win: Demi Moore (THE SUBSTANCE)

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OVERALL FILM AWARDS

Best Animated Film:

Presented to the best animated feature.

• Should Win: (no opinion)

• Will Win: THE WILD ROBOT

Best International Film:

Presented to the best feature-length film produced outside the United States with a predominantly non-English dialogue track.

• Should Win: ALL WE IMAGINE AS LIGHT (Not nominated because not submitted by India, huge mistake imo)

• Will Win: I’M STILL HERE (Brazil)

BEST PICTURE:

• Should Win: THE BRUTALIST

• Will Win: ANORA

This feels like the most exciting BP race in a long time. Unlike past years (Oppenheimer, EEAAO), there’s no bellwether that has dominated the season, nor was there ever a front runner that lost steam to an unexpected dark horse (à la Parasite or Coda). Best Pictures generally capture some sort of package of wins as well, a combination of some (rarely all) of an acting, writing, directing, and sometimes editing win. EEAAO + Oppenheimer won big across the board, but Coda (screenplay + supporting actor), Nomadland (screenplay + director + lead actress), Parasite (screenplay + director), Argo (screenplay + editing), all showcase this.

Then there’s the precursor awards, beginning with the Golden Globes and continuing with the guilds (Producers, Directors, Screen Actors) and other shows (Critics Choice, BAFTAs). The Producer Guild’s Awards (PGA), since switching to a ranked-choice ballot system like the Oscars in 2009, has predicted BP correctly all but 3 times. Many also try to map the the voting bases of these bodies (Globes and BAFTAs being more international, for example), onto the wider Oscar voting base.

Then there’s campaign momentum. Front-runners like 2016’s La La Land or 2021’s The Power of the Dog can amass tons of nominations and start as early as July (with Cannes) as the obvious winner. However, voter fatigue can burn them out as the voting periods are staggered over months (both movies lost to candidates that generated tons of last minute excitement — Moonlight and Coda). Emilia Pérez began with the most nominations and a Golden Globe, but collapsed under controversies swirling around main actress Karla Sofía Gascón.

So what does that mean for 2025? I’m going with ANORA, which 2 weeks ago won PGA (!!!) and best director at DGA (!!! - beating out former frontrunner Brady Corbet for The Brutalist). It also won the Critics Choice Awards earlier. Sean Baker looking likely to win Best Director swings this for me, opening up room for a solid director + screenplay + potential editing win package (and maybe Actress if Mikey Madison edges out Demi Moore — also possible).

But CONCLAVE is the movie to watch out for, mounting its own last minute ascendancy. It plays better with international voters, winning BAFTA, and it just won with the actors at SAG this past weekend. It’s certainly the more palatable film between the two, feeling more like a traditional BP winner. In a crowded arena where it’ll almost certainly place top-3 on lots of ballots, it might rise to win in a preferential system.

Its biggest drawback is that it missed even a director nomination (only 3 films in the past 35 years have won BP w/o a best director). I also don’t see SAG + BAFTAs as a more compelling package than PGA + DGA + WGA + CCA. Especially with Ralph Fiennes seemingly MIA, Conclave looks like too little, too late.

But we’ll have to see!

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See you all again soon! Until then, please get in touch if you have any thoughts or suggestions you’d like to share. If you want to keep up with what I’m watching, follow me on Letterboxd @atharv_gupta.

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