OSCAR PREDICTIONS 2025
And the Academy Award goes to...
In case you missed it … My BEST of 2024!
With the Oscars coming up on March 2nd, I’ve finally finished my predictions for the show! I have two components for each category – who should win and who will win.
Last year I went 14/19, but this year … the truth is … I’m really in pursuit of greatness. I know people don’t usually talk like that, but I want to be one of the greats.
At the end, for my best picture prediction, I’ve included a write-up explaining not only my pick, but also some background on how people look at the awards season leading up to the Oscars.
TECHNICAL AWARDS
Awards honoring below-the-line talent that makes film possible
Best Hair & Makeup:
Should Win: THE SUBSTANCE
Will Win: WICKED
Best Costume Design:
Should Win: WICKED
Will Win: WICKED
Best Production Design:
Should Win: DUNE 2
Will Win: WICKED
Best Visual Effects:
Should Win: DUNE 2
Will Win: DUNE 2
Best Cinematography:

Should Win: NICKEL BOYS
Will Win: THE BRUTALIST
Best Sound:
Should Win: DUNE 2
Will Win: DUNE 2
MUSIC: Best Original Score

Should Win: CONCLAVE
Will Win: THE BRUTALIST
MUSIC: Best Original Song

Should Win: It Ain’t Me Babe (A COMPLETE UNKNOWN — not an original song but don’t care. No opinion amongst the nominees)
WILL WIN: El Mal (EMILIA PÉREZ)
Best Film Editing:

Should Win: ANORA
Will Win: CONCLAVE
WRITING, ACTING, AND DIRECTING
WRITING: Best Original Screenplay
Should Win: A REAL PAIN
Will Win: ANORA
WRITING: Best Adapted Screenplay
Should Win: NICKEL BOYS
Will Win: CONCLAVE
Best Director:
Should Win: RaMell Ross (NICKEL BOYS)
Will Win: Sean Baker (ANORA)
Best Supporting Actor:
Should Win: Guy Pearce (THE BRUTALIST)
Will Win: Kieran Culkin (A REAL PAIN)
Best Supporting Actress:
Should Win: Felicity Jones (THE BRUTALIST)
Will Win: Zoe Saldaña (EMILIA PÉREZ)
Best Actor:
Should Win: Adrien Brody (THE BRUTALIST)
Will Win: Adrien Brody (THE BRUTALIST)
(… Although if Timothée Chalamet pulls off the upset, I’ll be thrilled)
Best Actress:
Should Win: Mikey Madison (ANORA)
Will Win: Demi Moore (THE SUBSTANCE)
OVERALL FILM AWARDS
Best Animated Film:
Should Win: (no opinion)
Will Win: THE WILD ROBOT
Best International Film:

Should Win: ALL WE IMAGINE AS LIGHT (Not nominated because not submitted by India, huge mistake imo)
Will Win: I’M STILL HERE (Brazil)
BEST PICTURE:
Should Win: THE BRUTALIST
Will Win: ANORA
This feels like the most exciting BP race in a long time. Unlike past years (Oppenheimer, EEAAO), there’s no bellwether that has dominated the season, nor was there ever a front runner that lost steam to an unexpected dark horse (à la Parasite or Coda). Best Pictures generally capture some sort of package of wins as well, a combination of some (rarely all) of an acting, writing, directing, and sometimes editing win. EEAAO + Oppenheimer won big across the board, but Coda (screenplay + supporting actor), Nomadland (screenplay + director + lead actress), Parasite (screenplay + director), Argo (screenplay + editing), all showcase this.
Then there’s the precursor awards, beginning with the Golden Globes and continuing with the guilds (Producers, Directors, Screen Actors) and other shows (Critics Choice, BAFTAs). The Producer Guild’s Awards (PGA), since switching to a ranked-choice ballot system like the Oscars in 2009, has predicted BP correctly all but 3 times. Many also try to map the the voting bases of these bodies (Globes and BAFTAs being more international, for example), onto the wider Oscar voting base.
Then there’s campaign momentum. Front-runners like 2016’s La La Land or 2021’s The Power of the Dog can amass tons of nominations and start as early as July (with Cannes) as the obvious winner. However, voter fatigue can burn them out as the voting periods are staggered over months (both movies lost to candidates that generated tons of last minute excitement — Moonlight and Coda). Emilia Pérez began with the most nominations and a Golden Globe, but collapsed under controversies swirling around main actress Karla Sofía Gascón.
So what does that mean for 2025? I’m going with ANORA, which 2 weeks ago won PGA (!!!) and best director at DGA (!!! - beating out former frontrunner Brady Corbet for The Brutalist). It also won the Critics Choice Awards earlier. Sean Baker looking likely to win Best Director swings this for me, opening up room for a solid director + screenplay + potential editing win package (and maybe Actress if Mikey Madison edges out Demi Moore — also possible).
But CONCLAVE is the movie to watch out for, mounting its own last minute ascendancy. It plays better with international voters, winning BAFTA, and it just won with the actors at SAG this past weekend. It’s certainly the more palatable film between the two, feeling more like a traditional BP winner. In a crowded arena where it’ll almost certainly place top-3 on lots of ballots, it might rise to win in a preferential system.
Its biggest drawback is that it missed even a director nomination (only 3 films in the past 35 years have won BP w/o a best director). I also don’t see SAG + BAFTAs as a more compelling package than PGA + DGA + WGA + CCA. Especially with Ralph Fiennes seemingly MIA, Conclave looks like too little, too late.
But we’ll have to see!
See you all again soon! Until then, please get in touch if you have any thoughts or suggestions you’d like to share. If you want to keep up with what I’m watching, follow me on Letterboxd @atharv_gupta.
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