OSCAR PREDICTIONS 2024
And the Academy Award goes to ...
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With the Oscars coming up on March 10th, I’ve finally finished my predictions for the show! I have two components for each category – who should win and who will win. Last year I went 10/19 like a fool, but this year I feel real good. Let’s get into it!
TECHNICAL AWARDS
Awards honoring below-the-line talent that makes film possible
Should win: POOR THINGS
Will win: POOR THINGS
Poor Things has sort of soured on me over the past 2 months, but the one thing that has stuck was its sense of space, environment, and aesthetics.
Should win: THE KILLER (not nominated)
Will win: GODZILLA: MINUS ONE
I think there’s a toss-up between The Creator and Godzilla: Minus One for the actual award. That being said, I think this is an underwhelming line-up. My pick goes to Fincher’s THE KILLER (snubbed!), the VFX for which are insane (video here).
Should win: KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON
Will win: OPPENHEIMER
The fire and oil scenes in KOTFM slot it above anything else I’ve seen this year, including Oppenheimer.
Should win: POOR THINGS
Will win: BARBIE
Another toss-up between these two, but I’m guessing the Academy is going to award the audacious costumes that made Barbieland come to life.
Should win: POOR THINGS
Will win: MAESTRO
The painstaking efforts that Bradley Cooper went through to bring Bernstein to life (despite the nose), are likely going to be a hit with the Academy. But I think Willem Dafoe’s appearance alone is worthy of the statuette.
Should win: THE ZONE OF INTEREST
Will win: OPPENHEIMER
The Zone of Interest uses sound as a storytelling mechanism in a way that I genuinely have never seen/heard before. Masterful work and deeply innovative. There’s maybe a chance of it upsetting Oppenheimer, but I don’t think it will.
Should win: OPPENHEIMER
Will win: OPPENHEIMER
I’ve had Göransson’s score on repeat since the day I saw this movie.
Should win: What was I made for? (BARBIE)
Will win: What was I made for? (BARBIE)
This song slaps. Also super exciting that it’ll be Billie’s second Oscar in just 3 years (She won in 2022 for No Time to Die). EGOT incoming, I think.
Should win: OPPENHEIMER
Will win: OPPENHEIMER
How do you make a 3-hour long procedural biopic, told in non-linear fashion, most of which is comprised of people talking in rooms, into a gripping thriller? Jennifer Lame’s editing.
WRITING, ACTING, AND DIRECTING
Should win: OPPENHEIMER
Will win: AMERICAN FICTION
This is one of the most debated categories of the year, with no real clear favorite. American Fiction has seemed to make the biggest waves in run-up awards shows, but who’s to say. That being said, Oppenheimer’s adaption of American Prometheus (an 800+ page obtuse behemoth, for anyone not familiar), takes the cake for me.
Should win: ANATOMY OF A FALL/MAY DECEMBER/PAST LIVES
Will win: ANATOMY OF A FALL
Probably the most stacked category of the year. I’m not even going to try picking a should win. They’re all phenomenal (but Anatomy has it sewn up).
Should win: Charles Melton (MAY DECEMBER), not nominated
Will win: Robert Downey Jr. (OPPENHEIMER)
Charles Melton gave one of the best performances of the year, hands down, in May December. When the entire cast was snubbed by SAG (makes sense — a movie critiquing the very premise of acting), I knew the Oscar hopes were over, but my pick hasn’t changed. RDJ is a sure-fire winner, though.
Should win: Cillian Murphy (OPPENHEIMER)
Will win: Cillian Murphy (OPPENHEIMER)
For a while, there, Paul Giammati was a real contender for the statuette, with wins at Critics Choice and the Globes. But I never lost hope in Cillian <3. With a Globe, SAG, BAFTA, I think he’s the clear favorite for the Oscar.
Should win: Julianne Moore (MAY DECEMBER), not nominated.
Will win: Da’Vine Joy Randolph (THE HOLDOVERS)
Same thing here with Julianne Moore as with Charles Melton. Taking a cop out once again. But Da’Vine Joy Randolph has been the most dominant award winner all season, and deservedly so.
Should win: Sandra Hüller (ANATOMY OF A FALL)
Will win: Lily Gladstone (KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON)
Oh boy. This is the race to watch. The Oscar is between Lily Gladstone and Emma Stone (stones!) and truly is anyone’s game. Gladstone has won a Globe and a SAG. Stone has won a BAFTA, a Critic’s Choice and a Globe. I think the momentum is on Gladstone’s side, especially with the American-dominated Academy and the recent SAG win. Also, I think her performance was far better (Emma’s didn’t really do anything for me in Poor Things). But man, it’ll be a close one.
That said, Sandra Hüller, between Anatomy and Zone, has had the single best year for a performer in recent memory. She SHOULD take it home.
Should win: Christopher Nolan (OPPENHEIMER)
Will win: Christopher Nolan (OPPENHEIMER)
Nolan’s going to finally do it.
OVERALL FILM AWARDS
Should win: SPIDER-MAN: ACROSS THE SPIDER-VERSE
Will win: SPIDER-MAN: ACROSS THE SPIDER-VERSE
I liked Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse loads, and so did the Academy. It’s my personal pick and I think it’ll take home the prize. But I will say, part of me hopes Miyazaki squeaks through with his cerebral Boy and the Heron. Probably because I’m a hater.
Should win: PERFECT DAYS/THE ZONE OF INTEREST
Will win: THE ZONE OF INTEREST
The Zone of Interest is certainly one of the best films of the year. It’s a deeply powerful work, challenging in every sense, and an important entry into the realm of Holocaust cinema. I think it will be deservedly rewarded and that everyone should watch it. But I also watched Perfect Days a few days ago (Letterboxd review here) and would hate for it to go overlooked. It moved me deeply — you should all watch it.
Should win: OPPENHEIMER
Will win: OPPENHEIMER
The best film of the year will be winning best picture. An epic biopic about one of the most consequential figures of all time, 3-hours long and mostly in black-and-white, grappling with issues that have never been more important, challenging and captivating and thrilling all at the same time. And it made almost $1 billion worldwide. I think this will go down in history as one of the most important BP wins ever for the film industry.
See you all again next week. Until then, please get in touch if you have any thoughts or suggestions you’d like to share. If you want to keep up with what I’m watching, follow me on Letterboxd @atharv_gupta.